by In a significant milestone for the country’s transition to a low-carbon sustainable energy system, Britain is expected to generate more electricity from wind, solar, and hydro sources than from fossil fuels in 2023. While renewables had surpassed fossil fuels in 2020 due to COVID-19 impacts, this trend did not continue in the following years of 2021 and 2022. However, it is projected that this renewable milestone will be achieved in 2023, although it will be a close call.
It is worth noting that the initial renewables overtaking fossil fuels in 2020 included around 5% of electricity generated from biomass plants, which burn wood pellets often imported from American forests. While biomass counts as renewable as trees can be regrown, critics argue that this form of energy generation is not globally scalable compared to weather-dependent renewables such as wind, solar, and hydropower.
Using a narrower definition excluding biomass, which is more appropriate for a global transition, there is a high probability that wind, solar, and hydro sources will generate more electricity than fossil fuels in 2023. Once this milestone is achieved, it is unlikely, although not impossible, for gas and coal to produce more electricity in Britain than renewables over a full year.
The final days of 2023 will determine whether Britain crosses this milestone. A chart tracking progress shows the running total of the difference between renewables and fossil fuel-generated electricity. If the line is above the zero axis, it indicates the year has had more renewable than fossil fuel generation. If the red line ends the year above zero, Britain will have reached the milestone.
However, one caveat is the presence of missing and estimated data for embedded generation, which typically accounts for 1%-2% of the final total. As of now, with only ten days of data remaining in 2023, renewables are slightly ahead by over 1,000 GWh (equivalent to a peak day of electrical demand). Maintaining this lead depends on weather conditions, particularly wind, as the holiday period sees reduced electricity usage.
The drop in electrical demand is another important aspect to consider. 2023 is set to have lower demand than 2022, which was even lower than the pandemic-impacted year of 2020, contrary to predictions due to record prices. The decrease in demand means there was no requirement for additional generation, much of which would have come from fossil fuels.
However, 2023 may be the first year where renewable generation exceeds domestic electricity demand, with homes accounting for 36% of total electrical demand. This means that the annual electricity generated by Britain’s wind turbines, solar panels, and hydro resources will surpass the electricity consumed by its 29 million households over the course of the year.
An associated bar chart illustrates the trend towards this point since 2009. In the first half of 2023, renewable output lagged behind domestic electrical demand by 1.5 TWh (1500 GWh), but strong renewable performance in the latter half of the year has made it likely to end with total generation surpassing household demand.
If these milestones are not realized in 2023, they are almost certain to be achieved in 2024. This is due to the addition of 1.7 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2024 and the scheduled closure of Britain’s last coal-fired power station, which will halt its electricity production
*Note:
1. Source: Coherent Market Insights, Public sources, Desk research
2. We have leveraged AI tools to mine information and compile it
